Central explainer
The debt comes due in waves
The refinancing chain
1
Debt matures
When a Treasury security reaches its maturity date, the Treasury generally repays it by selling new securities.
Consequence: Maturing debt is rolled into new debt rather than paid off all at once.
2
Auctions set the cost
Investors bid at Treasury auctions. The yields on accepted bids — shaped by market conditions — set the cost of the replacement debt.
Consequence: If investors require more return, replacement debt costs more than the debt it replaces.
3
Budget room narrows
Higher refinancing rates gradually raise annual interest expense as more debt rolls over at new rates.
Consequence: Policymakers face harder tradeoffs among borrowing, revenue, spending growth, and other priorities.
More on step 1: debt matures
There is no single date when all U.S. debt comes due. Maturities are spread across weeks, months, and decades. New borrowing for annual deficits is added on top of refinancing.
More on step 2: auctions set the cost
For an existing fixed-payment bond, stronger demand tends to raise its price and lower its yield; weaker demand lowers its price and raises its yield. Auction yields are determined by accepted bids, not set by the government as a policy choice.
More on step 3: budget room narrows
This is a mechanism and a possible risk, not a prediction of default. The pace depends on how much debt matures, how far rates move, and how growth, inflation, and deficits change.
TakeawayOld debt is replaced by new debt. If the new debt pays a higher rate, yearly interest costs creep up as more of it rolls over. If rates fall, costs can ease.
The ladder: existing marketable debt by time until it comes due
Maturing debt is similar to a mortgage reaching its renewal date. The government must repay it or replace it with new debt at the interest rates available then.
Marketable Treasury securities: bills, notes, and bonds that investors can buy and resell. They make up most of the debt held by the public.Principal: the amount borrowed, not counting interest.Conceptual example — illustrative numbers, not data
Assumptions (made up for teaching): $100 billion matures every year, the old debt paid 2.5%, and every replacement pays the rate you choose. Real amounts will come from the ladder above once sourced.
After 3 years: about $6.0 billion more interest per year
$100B × 3 × (4.5% − 2.5%). The added cost grows step by step as each year's debt is replaced. This is an example, not a forecast, and not total federal interest.
When today’s Treasury debt comes due—and the rate it carries now
The bars show how much currently outstanding marketable Treasury debt reaches maturity each year. The gold line shows the average stated interest rate carried by fixed-rate notes and bonds maturing that year—not the rate the government will pay when the debt is refinanced.
The coupon is what this debt currently pays. The refinancing rate will be determined when replacement debt is issued.
Source: Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, data as of August 31, 2026. This is a snapshot as of August 31, 2026. It does not include Treasury securities issued after that date.
Current market reference: the 10-year Treasury par yield was 5.31% on October 5, 2026. This is one market rate, not the rate every maturing security will be refinanced at — replacement debt is sold at many lengths and rates.
* 2026 remaining: September–December. After 2036, a further $5.80 trillion comes due (not drawn).
2026 remaining: September–December
- Total principal maturing
- $7.21 trillion
- Fixed-rate principal in the gold line
- $927 billion
- Weighted-average fixed interest rate
- 2.85%
- Treasury bills
- $6.15 trillion
- Floating-rate notes
- $87 billion
- Inflation-protected securities (TIPS)
- $47 billion
- Share of the year covered by the gold line
- 12.9%
Chart data table
Billions of dollars. Coupon applies only to fixed-rate notes and bonds; "coverage" is the share of that year's principal included in the coupon average.
| Year | Total | Fixed-rate | Coupon | Coverage | Bills | FRNs | TIPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Sep–Dec) | 7,210 | 927 | 2.85% | 12.9% | 6,150 | 87 | 47 |
| 2027 | 4,741 | 3,068 | 2.99% | 64.7% | 1,098 | 354 | 221 |
| 2028 | 3,636 | 3,146 | 3.09% | 86.5% | 0 | 239 | 250 |
| 2029 | 2,547 | 2,291 | 3.47% | 89.9% | 0 | 0 | 256 |
| 2030 | 2,057 | 1,840 | 3.14% | 89.4% | 0 | 0 | 218 |
| 2031 | 1,919 | 1,749 | 3.20% | 91.1% | 0 | 0 | 171 |
| 2032 | 1,200 | 1,076 | 3.45% | 89.6% | 0 | 0 | 124 |
| 2033 | 960 | 853 | 3.99% | 88.9% | 0 | 0 | 107 |
| 2034 | 637 | 524 | 4.13% | 82.2% | 0 | 0 | 113 |
| 2035 | 676 | 551 | 4.28% | 81.6% | 0 | 0 | 125 |
| 2036 | 438 | 352 | 4.32% | 80.4% | 0 | 0 | 86 |
| After 2036 | 5,804 | 5,369 | 3.33% | 92.5% | 0 | 0 | 435 |
Not every Treasury security pays interest in the same way. The gold line represents fixed-rate nominal notes and bonds. Treasury bills, floating-rate notes and inflation-protected securities are included in the maturity totals but not in that fixed-rate average.
How each type of Treasury debt pays interest
- Treasury bills are sold at a discount and do not have a stated coupon rate.
- Floating-rate notes have rates that reset.
- TIPS have a stated coupon plus inflation adjustments.
- Fixed-rate nominal Treasury notes and bonds have stated coupon rates.
- Federal Financing Bank securities ($4 billion) have no listed maturity date and are excluded from both the bars and the line.
Related: Bond Market Warning: What Higher Treasury Rates and Weak Auctions Mean
Detailed maturity table
Calculated from official Treasury records. Data as of August 31, 2026.
| Comes due | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Within 1 year | $10.77 trillion | 33.8% |
| 1–2 years | $3.96 trillion | 12.4% |
| 2–3 years | $2.84 trillion | 8.9% |
| 3–4 years | $1.98 trillion | 6.2% |
| 4–5 years | $2.24 trillion | 7.0% |
| 5–10 years | $4.24 trillion | 13.3% |
| Beyond 10 years | $5.80 trillion | 18.2% |
| Total with a maturity date | $31.82 trillion | 100% |
- Data date
- August 31, 2026
- Release date
- September 4, 2026
- Retrieved
- October 6, 2026
- Source
- U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service — Monthly Statement of the Public Debt (MSPD), Table 3 — Detail of Marketable Treasury Securities Outstanding
Approximately $31.83 trillion in marketable Treasury securities outstanding; $31.82 trillion of it has a maturity date and is grouped above. This is not the entire national debt.
Technical detail (optional)
How we calculated this: We added up the outstanding amount of every unmatured marketable security listed in MSPD Table 3 (bills, notes, bonds, inflation-protected securities, and floating-rate notes) and grouped each by its maturity date measured from August 31, 2026. Each group ends on the anniversary of that date (for example, "1–2 years" means maturing after August 31, 2027, through August 31, 2028). Inflation-protected securities include Treasury's inflation adjustment. The group totals match Treasury's own class totals for unmatured securities. Not included: about $3.6 billion of Federal Financing Bank securities that have no listed maturity date, matured securities not yet redeemed, and non-marketable debt such as savings bonds and trust-fund holdings.
How we checked the calculation
- Data date
- August 31, 2026
- Publication date
- September 4, 2026
- Official source
- MSPD — Detail of Marketable Treasury Securities Outstanding
- Treasury marketable total (exact)
- $31,828,001.4636 million
- All maturity buckets (exact)
- $31,824,348.5419 million — identical for the annual chart (2026–2036 plus after 2036) and the table
- Difference
- $3,652.9217 million = Federal Financing Bank $3,590.9655 million + matured securities not yet redeemed $61.9562 million. Neither has a future maturity date.
- Securities included
- 463 individual securities, each counted once by its identifier (CUSIP)
- Types included
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds, inflation-protected securities (TIPS, with inflation adjustment), floating-rate notes
- Types excluded
- Federal Financing Bank securities; matured securities; all non-marketable debt (savings bonds, trust-fund holdings, state and local series)
- Weighted-average rate
- Σ(outstanding principal × stated coupon) ÷ Σ(outstanding principal), fixed-rate nominal notes and bonds only, per year
- Principal in the gold line
- $16,375,107.0242 million (2026–2036)
- Checks
- Every included security has a maturity date; none omitted. Reopened issues share one outstanding amount per security, so nothing is counted twice. Each class total matches Treasury's "Total Unmatured" line.
What if refinancing rates are…
Scenario—not a forecast
Additional annual cost = principal refinanced × increase in interest rate
| By end of | Principal refinanced so far | Additional annual interest |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Sep–Dec) | $7.21 trillion | ≈ $72 billion per year |
| 2028 | $15.59 trillion | ≈ $156 billion per year |
| 2031 | $22.11 trillion | ≈ $221 billion per year |
| 2036 | $26.02 trillion | ≈ $260 billion per year |
This simplified calculation isolates the effect of a rate difference. Actual interest costs will also depend on future borrowing, the types and lengths of securities Treasury issues, inflation adjustments, floating rates and market conditions.
Each security is counted once, when it first matures. No future refinancing rate is known; these are illustrative differences only.
New borrowing for future deficits is separate.
The table shows existing debt coming due. When the government also spends more than it collects, it must borrow additional money on top of refinancing. Those are different things, so projected new borrowing is not added to this table. CBO's projections cover it: CBO budget projections.
Baseline vs. higher-rate scenarios
Official baseline assumptions come from CBO projections. Higher-rate scenarios are labeled as scenarios. Until sourced figures are connected, you can enter your own numbers and see the arithmetic.
Scenario tool — example values ($200B, 2.5% → 5.2%), not data. Change them.
Formula: change in annual interest ≈ principal refinanced × (new rate − old rate)
≈ $5.4 billion per year
About $5.4 billion more interest per year on this $200 billion refinancing scenario.
$200 billion × (5.2% − 2.5%) = $5.4 billion per year — once all of it has been refinanced and outstanding for a full year. This is not total federal interest expense, not a cumulative total, and not a forecast. The added cost builds gradually as the debt rolls over.
Simplified on purpose: it ignores timing within the year, changes in maturity mix, new deficit borrowing, and compounding. It is a scenario, not a forecast.
TakeawayThe bigger the gap between the new rate and the old rate, and the more debt that rolls over, the bigger the change in yearly interest. If the new rate is lower, the change is negative.
Technical detail (optional)
Example with made-up round numbers (not data): refinancing $100 billion from 2% to 4% adds about $100B × 2% = $2 billion a year in interest.
Real outcomes also depend on when in the year debt matures, the mix of short- and long-term debt, and new deficit borrowing.
Interest in the budget
Interest expense can be compared with federal receipts or total outlays. Rising interest does not automatically remove one dollar from a specific program for each extra dollar — Congress chooses how to respond.
Net interest as a share of federal receipts
19.5% of federal receipts
For every $5 the federal government collected, about 97 cents went to net interest in fiscal 2026 — just under one dollar in five.
Formula: $1.051754 trillion net interest ÷ $5.403327 trillion receipts = 19.465%, rounded to 19.5% (full fiscal year). Net interest, not gross Treasury interest expense.
Source: U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data — Monthly Treasury Statement · Period Fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 – September 2026) · Released October 2026 (Monthly Treasury Statement, September 2026, Tables 1 and 9)
If refinancing costs more, what are the choices?
Borrow more
Cover higher interest with more debt.
Uncertainty: Adds to future refinancing needs.
Raise revenue
Higher taxes or a broader base.
Uncertainty: Effects on growth and who pays are debated.
Slow spending growth
Restrain growth in some programs.
Uncertainty: Affects services and beneficiaries.
Other policy changes
Growth, maturity, or budget-process changes.
Uncertainty: Results depend heavily on assumptions.
Yields can rise when demand at auction is weaker or investors require more return. That does not mean buyers will disappear or that default is imminent. Compare specific proposals.
Scenarios, not forecasts
What could change the path?
Borrowing costs and debt outcomes depend on more than one factor. Any of these can push the path up or down.
Takeaway: no single number decides the outcome. A change in one factor can be offset or made worse by the others.
- Interest rates
- Market yields determine what replacement debt costs.
- Economic growth
- Faster growth raises revenue and makes a given debt easier to carry.
- Inflation
- Affects yields investors require and the nominal size of the economy and budget.
- Deficits
- Annual shortfalls add new borrowing on top of refinancing.
- Debt maturities
- Shorter maturities pass rate changes into the budget faster.
- Treasury auction demand
- Weaker demand can mean higher accepted yields; stronger demand, lower ones.
- Federal Reserve policy
- Shapes short-term rates and financial conditions; buys and sells in the secondary market.