▲4 ACTIVE RED FLAGS — Federal debt is projected beyond its historic peak, interest is taking more budget capacity, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 5%, while its warning remains unresolved.
The federal government pays for its programs with revenue and borrowing. When outlays exceed receipts, the Treasury borrows by issuing securities; it also generally issues new securities to refinance maturing debt. If replacement borrowing costs more, interest expense can grow over time and narrow the room for other budget choices. The pace and impact depend on rates, growth, inflation, deficits, and investor demand.
Last verified: October 30, 2026 (gross federal debt and long-term rates); October 16, 2026 (net interest and interest-share entries); October 6, 2026 (all other entries)
Dated snapshots from official sources — each figure shows its exact as-of date. This is not a live feed. Arrows show direction only, not whether a change is good or bad.
As of: CBO baseline projection for 2026 — a projection, not a current measurement
Trend unavailable — awaiting comparable dataThe comparable 2027 CBO baseline projection is not verified in this project. Source report: October 8, 2026.
Month-end observations + latest verified close · U.S. Treasury par yield curve
4.94%
Latest verified close Oct 30, 2026
Change
+3.51 pt
High
5.29%
Low
1.43%
Interactive chart — tap or drag to explore dataKeyboard: focus the chart, then use ← → keys
Oct 30, 2026: 4.94% · hover, drag or use arrow keys
Axis does not start at zero, so small moves look larger. Ranges end at the latest stored close, not today. Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (10 Yr). Retrieved October 30, 2026 (October 30 close added); earlier points October 16, 2026; a dated snapshot, not a live feed. Tracker entry →
Text version: 61 verified observations in this range
Date
10-year yield
2021-11-30
1.43%
2021-12-31
1.52%
2022-01-31
1.79%
2022-02-28
1.83%
2022-03-31
2.32%
2022-04-29
2.89%
2022-05-31
2.85%
2022-06-30
2.98%
2022-07-29
2.67%
2022-08-31
3.15%
2022-09-30
3.83%
2022-10-31
4.10%
2022-11-30
3.68%
2022-12-30
3.88%
2023-01-31
3.52%
2023-02-28
3.92%
2023-03-31
3.48%
2023-04-28
3.44%
2023-05-31
3.64%
2023-06-30
3.81%
2023-07-31
3.97%
2023-08-31
4.09%
2023-09-29
4.59%
2023-10-31
4.88%
2023-11-30
4.37%
2023-12-29
3.88%
2024-01-31
3.99%
2024-02-29
4.25%
2024-03-28
4.20%
2024-04-30
4.69%
2024-05-31
4.51%
2024-06-28
4.36%
2024-07-31
4.09%
2024-08-30
3.91%
2024-09-30
3.81%
2024-10-31
4.28%
2024-11-29
4.18%
2024-12-31
4.58%
2025-01-31
4.58%
2025-02-28
4.24%
2025-03-31
4.23%
2025-04-30
4.17%
2025-05-30
4.41%
2025-06-30
4.24%
2025-07-31
4.37%
2025-08-29
4.23%
2025-09-30
4.16%
2025-10-31
4.11%
2025-11-28
4.02%
2025-12-31
4.18%
2026-01-30
4.26%
2026-02-27
3.97%
2026-03-31
4.30%
2026-04-30
4.40%
2026-05-29
4.45%
2026-06-30
4.44%
2026-07-31
4.75%
2026-08-31
4.75%
2026-09-30
5.29%
2026-10-14
5.19%
2026-10-30
4.94%
Financial Trends
The long view, from official data
Official U.S. Treasury and European Central Bank records. This is a dated snapshot, retrieved October 16, 2026 — it does not update automatically.
The 10-year Treasury yield chart is shown above, near the top of the page.
Gross federal debt, end of each fiscal year
trillions of dollars · Fiscal years (Oct 1–Sep 30); value on the last reported day of September
$40.172 trillion
FY2026 vs FY2025: +$2.534 trillion · as of Sep 30, 2026
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Gross federal debtDebt held by the public
FY2026 (Sep 30, 2026): $40.172 trillion · Debt held by the public: $32.425 trillion
Why it matters: Debt held by the public is what must be refinanced in markets as it matures; gross debt also counts what the government owes its own trust funds.
Gross debt includes money owed to federal trust funds; debt held by the public is the part financed in credit markets. Latest daily figure is in the national-debt box.
All 27 observations and source
Period
Date
Gross federal debt
Debt held by the public
FY2000
2000-09-29
$5.674 trillion
$3.405 trillion
FY2001
2001-09-28
$5.807 trillion
$3.339 trillion
FY2002
2002-09-30
$6.228 trillion
$3.553 trillion
FY2003
2003-09-30
$6.783 trillion
$3.924 trillion
FY2004
2004-09-30
$7.379 trillion
$4.307 trillion
FY2005
2005-09-30
$7.933 trillion
$4.601 trillion
FY2006
2006-09-29
$8.507 trillion
$4.843 trillion
FY2007
2007-09-28
$9.008 trillion
$5.049 trillion
FY2008
2008-09-30
$10.025 trillion
$5.809 trillion
FY2009
2009-09-30
$11.910 trillion
$7.552 trillion
FY2010
2010-09-30
$13.562 trillion
$9.023 trillion
FY2011
2011-09-30
$14.790 trillion
$10.127 trillion
FY2012
2012-09-28
$16.066 trillion
$11.270 trillion
FY2013
2013-09-30
$16.738 trillion
$11.976 trillion
FY2014
2014-09-30
$17.824 trillion
$12.785 trillion
FY2015
2015-09-30
$18.151 trillion
$13.124 trillion
FY2016
2016-09-30
$19.573 trillion
$14.173 trillion
FY2017
2017-09-29
$20.245 trillion
$14.673 trillion
FY2018
2018-09-28
$21.516 trillion
$15.761 trillion
FY2019
2019-09-30
$22.719 trillion
$16.809 trillion
FY2020
2020-09-30
$26.945 trillion
$21.019 trillion
FY2021
2021-09-30
$28.429 trillion
$22.283 trillion
FY2022
2022-09-30
$30.929 trillion
$24.299 trillion
FY2023
2023-09-29
$33.167 trillion
$26.330 trillion
FY2024
2024-09-30
$35.465 trillion
$28.307 trillion
FY2025
2025-09-30
$37.638 trillion
$30.278 trillion
FY2026
2026-09-30
$40.172 trillion
$32.425 trillion
Source: U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny. Retrieved October 16, 2026; a dated snapshot that does not refresh automatically. Query: https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny
billions of dollars · Fiscal-year totals (Oct 1–Sep 30), Monthly Treasury Statement Table 9 “Net Interest” line
$1,051.8 billion
FY2026 vs FY2025: +$81.4 billion · as of Sep 30, 2026
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FY2026 (Sep 30, 2026): $1,051.8 billion
Net interest is interest paid to outside holders minus interest the government earns. It is smaller than gross interest, which also counts interest credited to federal trust funds.
All 12 observations and source
Period
Date
Net interest
FY2015
2015-09-30
$223.3 billion
FY2016
2016-09-30
$240.7 billion
FY2017
2017-09-30
$262.8 billion
FY2018
2018-09-30
$324.7 billion
FY2019
2019-09-30
$375.6 billion
FY2020
2020-09-30
$344.7 billion
FY2021
2021-09-30
$352.3 billion
FY2022
2022-09-30
$475.1 billion
FY2023
2023-09-30
$659.2 billion
FY2024
2024-09-30
$881.7 billion
FY2025
2025-09-30
$970.4 billion
FY2026
2026-09-30
$1,051.8 billion
Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 9. Retrieved October 16, 2026; a dated snapshot that does not refresh automatically. Query: https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_9
Gross interest expense on Treasury debt by fiscal year
billions of dollars · Fiscal-year totals (Oct 1–Sep 30): fiscal-year-to-date amounts reported for September; gross, not net
$1,360.4 billion
FY2026 vs FY2025: +$140.4 billion · as of Sep 30, 2026
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Gross interest (all debt)Interest on debt held by the public
FY2026 (Sep 30, 2026): $1,360.4 billion · Interest on debt held by the public: $1,068.5 billion
Why it matters: Each year's interest bill reflects the rates locked in as debt was issued and refinanced. As older, cheaper debt matures and is replaced at today's rates, the bill can keep rising even if rates stop climbing.
Gross interest includes interest credited to federal trust funds (Government Account Series), which is money the government owes itself. Net interest — the budget measure — subtracts that and other interest income, so it is smaller.
All 17 observations and source
Period
Date
Gross interest (all debt)
Interest on debt held by the public
FY2010
2010-09-30
$414.0 billion
$211.7 billion
FY2011
2011-09-30
$454.4 billion
$247.8 billion
FY2012
2012-09-30
$359.8 billion
$243.3 billion
FY2013
2013-09-30
$415.7 billion
$245.5 billion
FY2014
2014-09-30
$430.8 billion
$255.4 billion
FY2015
2015-09-30
$402.4 billion
$248.2 billion
FY2016
2016-09-30
$432.6 billion
$267.7 billion
FY2017
2017-09-30
$458.5 billion
$291.5 billion
FY2018
2018-09-30
$523.0 billion
$351.1 billion
FY2019
2019-09-30
$574.6 billion
$397.3 billion
FY2020
2020-09-30
$522.8 billion
$368.1 billion
FY2021
2021-09-30
$562.4 billion
$389.0 billion
FY2022
2022-09-30
$718.7 billion
$489.2 billion
FY2023
2023-09-30
$882.6 billion
$666.2 billion
FY2024
2024-09-30
$1,133.0 billion
$896.0 billion
FY2025
2025-09-30
$1,220.0 billion
$973.7 billion
FY2026
2026-09-30
$1,360.4 billion
$1,068.5 billion
Source: U.S. Treasury, Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding. Retrieved October 22, 2026; a dated snapshot that does not refresh automatically. Query: https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/interest_expense?filter=record_calendar_month:eq:09 (sum of fytd_expense_amt)
basis points (100 bp = 1 percentage point) · Calendar months; ECB long-term interest rates for convergence purposes (monthly averages of 10-year government bond yields)
97 bp
2026-09 vs 2026-08: +15 bp · as of Sep 30, 2026
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2026-09 (Sep 30, 2026): 97 bp
Why it matters: When investors demand more to lend to one government than to its neighbor, that country's new borrowing — including refinancing maturing debt — gets more expensive over time. It is a market warning, not a default signal.
The gap is the extra yield investors demand to hold French rather than German 10-year debt. Monthly averages smooth out daily spikes, so they sit below intraday peaks reported in the news.
Recent news snapshots — not part of the chart
Oct 21, 2026: About 157 bp intraday, as France's 10-year yield briefly touched 5.002% (Reuters-reported market snapshot). Reuters, Oct 21 2026
Oct 22, 2026: 173.58 bp (earlier Reuters-reported snapshot retained). The October 22 Reuters report also records a 177.7 bp spread and a 5.1415% French 10-year yield peak; these intraday readings need not be simultaneous and are not closing values. Added readings checked October 23 via Reuters copy on Investing.com because the original page blocked access. None is plotted in the ECB monthly series.. Reuters, Oct 22 2026
Single intraday readings, not monthly averages; the official series above ends with the latest published month.
All 129 observations and source
Period
Date
France minus Germany
2016-01
2016-01-31
41 bp
2016-02
2016-02-29
42 bp
2016-03
2016-03-31
34 bp
2016-04
2016-04-30
38 bp
2016-05
2016-05-31
38 bp
2016-06
2016-06-30
41 bp
2016-07
2016-07-31
32 bp
2016-08
2016-08-31
28 bp
2016-09
2016-09-30
27 bp
2016-10
2016-10-31
33 bp
2016-11
2016-11-30
48 bp
2016-12
2016-12-31
50 bp
2017-01
2017-01-31
61 bp
2017-02
2017-02-28
77 bp
2017-03
2017-03-31
67 bp
2017-04
2017-04-30
66 bp
2017-05
2017-05-31
47 bp
2017-06
2017-06-30
41 bp
2017-07
2017-07-31
38 bp
2017-08
2017-08-31
36 bp
2017-09
2017-09-30
35 bp
2017-10
2017-10-31
44 bp
2017-11
2017-11-30
41 bp
2017-12
2017-12-31
37 bp
2018-01
2018-01-31
38 bp
2018-02
2018-02-28
32 bp
2018-03
2018-03-31
30 bp
2018-04
2018-04-30
30 bp
2018-05
2018-05-31
34 bp
2018-06
2018-06-30
42 bp
2018-07
2018-07-31
39 bp
2018-08
2018-08-31
41 bp
2018-09
2018-09-30
40 bp
2018-10
2018-10-31
42 bp
2018-11
2018-11-30
45 bp
2018-12
2018-12-31
51 bp
2019-01
2019-01-31
52 bp
2019-02
2019-02-28
49 bp
2019-03
2019-03-31
43 bp
2019-04
2019-04-30
41 bp
2019-05
2019-05-31
43 bp
2019-06
2019-06-30
39 bp
2019-07
2019-07-31
32 bp
2019-08
2019-08-31
31 bp
2019-09
2019-09-30
32 bp
2019-10
2019-10-31
31 bp
2019-11
2019-11-30
33 bp
2019-12
2019-12-31
34 bp
2020-01
2020-01-31
30 bp
2020-02
2020-02-29
29 bp
2020-03
2020-03-31
49 bp
2020-04
2020-04-30
51 bp
2020-05
2020-05-31
49 bp
2020-06
2020-06-30
39 bp
2020-07
2020-07-31
37 bp
2020-08
2020-08-31
35 bp
2020-09
2020-09-30
31 bp
2020-10
2020-10-31
31 bp
2020-11
2020-11-30
29 bp
2020-12
2020-12-31
28 bp
2021-01
2021-01-31
27 bp
2021-02
2021-02-28
30 bp
2021-03
2021-03-31
29 bp
2021-04
2021-04-30
32 bp
2021-05
2021-05-31
43 bp
2021-06
2021-06-30
44 bp
2021-07
2021-07-31
44 bp
2021-08
2021-08-31
42 bp
2021-09
2021-09-30
40 bp
2021-10
2021-10-31
41 bp
2021-11
2021-11-30
41 bp
2021-12
2021-12-31
43 bp
2022-01
2022-01-31
42 bp
2022-02
2022-02-28
53 bp
2022-03
2022-03-31
50 bp
2022-04
2022-04-30
54 bp
2022-05
2022-05-31
57 bp
2022-06
2022-06-30
61 bp
2022-07
2022-07-31
63 bp
2022-08
2022-08-31
66 bp
2022-09
2022-09-30
61 bp
2022-10
2022-10-31
58 bp
2022-11
2022-11-30
51 bp
2022-12
2022-12-31
54 bp
2023-01
2023-01-31
50 bp
2023-02
2023-02-28
50 bp
2023-03
2023-03-31
54 bp
2023-04
2023-04-30
54 bp
2023-05
2023-05-31
60 bp
2023-06
2023-06-30
55 bp
2023-07
2023-07-31
58 bp
2023-08
2023-08-31
56 bp
2023-09
2023-09-30
58 bp
2023-10
2023-10-31
63 bp
2023-11
2023-11-30
59 bp
2023-12
2023-12-31
55 bp
2024-01
2024-01-31
57 bp
2024-02
2024-02-29
52 bp
2024-03
2024-03-31
47 bp
2024-04
2024-04-30
52 bp
2024-05
2024-05-31
51 bp
2024-06
2024-06-30
67 bp
2024-07
2024-07-31
68 bp
2024-08
2024-08-31
73 bp
2024-09
2024-09-30
73 bp
2024-10
2024-10-31
76 bp
2024-11
2024-11-30
78 bp
2024-12
2024-12-31
83 bp
2025-01
2025-01-31
84 bp
2025-02
2025-02-28
75 bp
2025-03
2025-03-31
69 bp
2025-04
2025-04-30
75 bp
2025-05
2025-05-31
70 bp
2025-06
2025-06-30
72 bp
2025-07
2025-07-31
73 bp
2025-08
2025-08-31
75 bp
2025-09
2025-09-30
82 bp
2025-10
2025-10-31
82 bp
2025-11
2025-11-30
78 bp
2025-12
2025-12-31
75 bp
2026-01
2026-01-31
72 bp
2026-02
2026-02-28
66 bp
2026-03
2026-03-31
73 bp
2026-04
2026-04-30
73 bp
2026-05
2026-05-31
70 bp
2026-06
2026-06-30
72 bp
2026-07
2026-07-31
78 bp
2026-08
2026-08-31
82 bp
2026-09
2026-09-30
97 bp
Source: European Central Bank, Long-term interest rate statistics (IRS). Retrieved October 22, 2026; a dated snapshot that does not refresh automatically. Query: https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/IRS/M.{FR,DE}.L.L40.CI.0000.EUR.N.Z (France minus Germany × 100)
CBO’s February baseline projects debt rising relative to the economy. Its October analysis asks how much higher borrowing rates could add—not what will happen.
2026 baseline endpoint: 100.6% (also a projection, not an actual reading)
February baseline: 120.2% in 2036.
February 2026 baseline; the reference for both comparisons.
The baseline’s 2026 endpoint is 100.6%, also a projection—not an actual Treasury reading. Annual supplemental observations could not be retrieved; only sourced endpoints are shown. No annual path is interpolated.
How borrowing can feed back into deficits
Deficits require new borrowing. More debt and higher rates on new or refinanced borrowing can raise debt service. If other receipts and spending stay unchanged, that extra interest makes deficits larger—and can require more borrowing. It is a conditional feedback loop, not an inevitable crisis.
In CBO’s +1.5-point scenario, the extra $6.0 trillion in deficits consists of $4.9 trillion in direct higher net interest and $1.1 trillion in interest on the additional debt.
What these comparisons leave unchanged
CBO holds other economic variables unchanged and does not model the higher rates’ wider economic effects. These scenarios are not predictions of growth, inflation, default or a crash. Market yields do not change fixed coupons on existing bonds; refinancing transmits new rates over time.
Why this differs from the debt charts above
Debt held by the public excludes intragovernmental holdings, such as Treasury securities held by federal trust funds. Gross federal debt includes both. Here CBO divides projected public debt by projected annual economic output (GDP); Treasury’s historical chart reports observed dollars. Different coverage, units, dates and assumptions mean these numbers are not interchangeable.
Source: CBO, Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Two Scenarios With Higher Interest Rates (released October 8, 2026; February 2026 baseline). As of October 22, 2026: editor-supplied verified cbo source packet; annual Supplemental Data inaccessible in this check. Historical charts above remain separate, with their own source dates. This endpoint comparison contains no historical/projection line or forecast boundary because no annual public-debt/GDP series is plotted.
What changed
Since last update — October 30, 2026
Real, dated changes to this site — not based on your visits.
Gross federal debt was about $40.594 trillion on October 29 (latest Treasury figure); the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.94% on October 30 — below 5%, but the signal is not resolved.
Source check: we now cite the IMF’s original October 14 blog on rising government borrowing costs, alongside its October 15 repost. The findings are not new.
◇Conditional mechanism — not an inevitable sequence More debt does not automatically make Treasuries less attractive or force up the annual return investors demand for lending money to the government, called the yield. Buyer demand, the economy, inflation expectations, and policy all matter — and the loop can slow or reverse.
Press Start or Next to step through the loop.
1
More borrowing and debt coming due.
Deficits add new debt, and older debt keeps maturing.
→ Next, because the Treasury must sell more securities.
2
Auction yields may rise.
If investors want more compensation, accepted bids carry higher yields.
→ Next, because many loans are priced off Treasury yields.
3
Other borrowing rates can follow.
Treasury yields shape other rates, along with Fed policy and other market forces.
→ Next, because maturing debt is replaced at current yields.
4
Interest expense can rise gradually.
Fixed-rate debt does not reprice at once. The cost builds as debt matures and is refinanced.
→ Next, because interest is part of federal spending.
5
Deficits can widen.
Higher interest can widen future deficits and raise borrowing needs.
↺ Next, because that feeds back into step 1.
↺ Step 5 can loop back to step 1 — conditional, not inevitable
How America’s Debt Cycle Works
Six stages that can reinforce one another — follow the arrows clockwise. Each stage is conditional, not automatic.
MORE DEBT
Government Spending
More programs, larger deficits
↓
Treasury Borrowing
More bonds to fill the gap
↓
Bond Demand
If demand weakens, investors may require higher yields
↓
Interest Rates
Higher rates increase the cost of borrowing
↓
Interest Expense
More of the budget goes to interest
↓
Bigger Deficits
Less room for other spending
↺ back to the top
Conditions vary — this loop is not inevitable. Yields also move with Federal Reserve policy, inflation, growth, global demand and other market forces, and policy changes or lower rates can slow or reverse the cycle.
The Federal Reserve is separate. It generally buys and sells Treasuries in the secondary market, not at Treasury auctions, and does not directly fund the Treasury. Its policy rate is distinct from market Treasury yields.
TakeawayEach wave of maturing debt is refinanced at the rates of its day. Higher rates raise costs slowly, not all at once — and lower rates can ease them.
What matters now
Three findings from official CBO projections. Projections and scenarios are labeled as such — none is a guaranteed outcome.
Featured findings: 2 Red Flags•1 Scenario
Last reviewed: October 5, 2026
These are featured findings, not the full count. The tracker holds 4 Red Flags and 4 Watches. View Red Flag Tracker →
▲Red Flag
Debt projected beyond its historic peak
CBO projects federal debt held by the public rising from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036. It would surpass the previous 106% record reached after World War II.
Why it matters:More debt increases interest costs, reduces future budget flexibility and increases sensitivity to changes in rates.
Classification:Official baseline projection — not a guaranteed outcome.
CBO projects net federal interest outlays increasing from approximately $1 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036. By 2036, interest would consume nearly one-fifth of federal spending.
Why it matters:More revenue must support past borrowing, leaving policymakers with harder choices involving taxes, spending, deficits and additional borrowing. October update: refinancing brings borrowing costs into the budget over time; growth helps, but persistent deficits still matter.
Classification:Official baseline projection — not a guaranteed outcome.
In a September 2026 sensitivity analysis, CBO estimated that interest rates one percentage point above its extended baseline would result in debt reaching 222% of GDP in 2056, compared with 175% under the baseline.
Why it matters:A large debt balance makes the budget highly sensitive to seemingly modest changes in average borrowing costs.
?Unverified — do not rely on this yetNot every signal is flashing red. Treasury has recently reported that auction demand remains robust and bid-to-cover ratios remain within normal ranges. Last Trillion will distinguish current market stress from longer-term fiscal risk.
Scenarios, not forecasts
What could change the path?
Borrowing costs and debt outcomes depend on more than one factor. Any of these can push the path up or down.
Takeaway: no single number decides the outcome. A change in one factor can be offset or made worse by the others.
Interest rates
Market yields determine what replacement debt costs.
Economic growth
Faster growth raises revenue and makes a given debt easier to carry.
Inflation
Affects yields investors require and the nominal size of the economy and budget.
Deficits
Annual shortfalls add new borrowing on top of refinancing.
Debt maturities
Shorter maturities pass rate changes into the budget faster.
Treasury auction demand
Weaker demand can mean higher accepted yields; stronger demand, lower ones.
Federal Reserve policy
Shapes short-term rates and financial conditions; buys and sells in the secondary market.
Three featured stories, chosen by a fixed editorial rule — significance, recency and educational value, with editor pins for overrides. Never by page views.
Provisional ONS figures put UK public sector net debt at £3,005.0 billion at September’s end. Monthly borrowing exceeded forecast, while the debt-to-GDP ratio was lower than a year earlier.
Reuters reports a brief 5.002% French 10-year yield on October 21, 2026. Budget uncertainty and wider rate rises matter, but a market warning is not evidence of imminent default.
Explainer
How we evaluate proposed solutions
Every proposal — from any party — gets the same questions: what it changes, how it could affect debt, borrowing costs, growth, inflation, or public services, who bears costs or benefits, what it assumes, and the serious case for and against.
